The ongoing Iran-Israel conflict may ultimately hinge on a single, uncertain figure: the number of medium-range ballistic missiles (MRBMs) left in Iran’s arsenal. Although far from exact, this estimate could determine the course of the war and the likelihood of diplomatic de-escalation.
According to Israeli military intelligence and defense analysts, Iran has launched approximately 700 MRBMs at Israel over the past 14 months. This leaves Iran with an estimated 300 to 1,300 missiles still in reserve — a wide margin reflecting both the secrecy of Iran’s missile program and the fog of war.
This remaining stockpile is under heavy threat. In the past five days alone, Israel Defense Forces (IDF) have conducted intense airstrikes targeting Iran’s surface-to-surface missile launchers, claiming to have destroyed at least one-third of them. These strikes could significantly cripple Iran’s strike-back capabilities.
Experts suggest that the erosion of its missile arsenal may pressure Iran to seek negotiations, especially as Israeli air superiority remains virtually unchallenged and nightly Iranian missile attacks on Israeli cities appear to be waning.
How Many Missiles Does Iran Really Have?
The exact number of MRBMs in Iran’s inventory is difficult to verify. In 2023, General Kenneth McKenzie, then-head of U.S. CENTCOM, estimated Iran had over 3,000 ballistic missiles of varying ranges. Defense analyst Behnam Ben Taleblu from the Foundation for Defense of Democracies estimated that between 1,000 to 2,000 of these could be medium-range — capable of covering the 1,400 km distance between Iran and Israel. He emphasized that this figure is “at best a back-of-the-envelope calculation.”
According to IDF reports:
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120 MRBMs were fired on April 13, 2024
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200 MRBMs on October 1, 2024
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380 MRBMs during the past five days of the conflict
This brings the total to around 700 missiles, significantly draining Iran’s known arsenal.
Whether this brings Iran to a breaking point depends not just on how many missiles remain, but also on Israel’s destruction of Iran’s launch infrastructure. The severity of this damage may tilt the balance of power in the coming days.
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